Poland calls the bear's bluff!

The deployment of a battery of US Patriot missiles to Poland in May 2010 is the fulfillment of agreements reached under the US/Polish Declaration on Strategic Cooperation signed in August 2008. This was always from the beginning a symbolic act, as one battery is incapable of defending Polish airspace; a fact acknowledged by the announcement Defence Minister Bogdan Klich that the Polish government has started initial supplier selection for the procurement of 10-12 Polish owned batteries costing around $1 billion each. However, the deployment brings US/Polish relations to a new level. A fact not missed by Russia who in Sep 2009 rattled its sabre in Operation West: a large scale exercise with Belarus centred around mock landings on a Polish beach and deployment of nuclear missiles.


While nuclear war may be far from any future reality, Poland treads a dangerous tight rope in its relations with the USA and Russia. The Smolensk air crash which killed the Polish president and many top figures in the country provided a thaw in Polish-Russian relations and many have seen it as a departure point for a new era. However, Poland's continued commitment to plans drawn up with America under the Bush administration may yet prove a stinking point.

While others in central/eastern Europe have trodden more carefully since the region's break with Moscow, Poland built upon its 1999 accession to NATO by staunchly supporting the USA in various cases, from the 2003 Iraq War to the proposed missile defence shield. This, coupled with Poland's vocal support of Georgia in the 2008 Russia-Georgia War has greatly irritated Poland's large eastern neighbour. While not suffering physical attack, Poland has suffered economically with Russia placing a ban on meat imports from Poland; officially for health reasons, although the EU did not feel such a need.

Poland's wish to place itself firmly in the 'western' camp following the end of the Cold War has undoubtedly been achieved, yet Poland continues to pursue policies which further distance itself from Russia. This strategy goes against the geopolitical reality that Poland is faced with, and risks endangering Poland. Although, conflict is not a likely outcome, Poland's economic interests are conceivably at threat. Resource security is paramount in the 21st Century for all countries and Poland receives the majority of its gas (approx 65%) comes form Russia and other ex-Soviet countries. As Ukraine found out, Russia can easily turn the tap off.



It is paramount therefore that as we approach the end of the first decade of the 21st Century, Poland establishes a positive relationship with Russia; one that can foster both economic and military security. This does not mean that Poland must negate its democratic ideals and relinquish its support of countries like Georgia, merely that Poland must find its own middle way: a road that ensures peace and prosperity for Poland and the greater region it resides in.